Weather Bulletin

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 8:40 AM AST MON SEP 16 2019
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY, LIKELY
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOW FAR OR HOW CLOSE IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE PROJECTED TRACK,
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SINCE FRIDAY, WHEN IT WAS FIRST DEEMED A DISTURBANCE; HENCE, THE EVENTUAL PATH REMAINS QUITE UNCLEAR.

THE LONGER IT REMAINS ON A WESTERLY TRACK, THE GREATER THE  PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN, IF IT BECOMES A  TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIFETHREATENING CONDITIONS. HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS PREPARED AND MONITOR DISTURBANCE AL97 CLOSELY.

AT 8 AM LOCAL TIME OR 1200 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UNKNOWN, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, WINDS ARE LIKELY LESS THAN 30 MPH.

BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WE WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO SAY WITH SOME CERTAINTY HOW STRONG AND WHICH ISLAND, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY, AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN, IF NEEDED, BY AROUND 8 PM TODAY.
FORECASTER: DALE DESTIN

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