TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 11 AM ECT THU, SEP 27, 2018

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST OR ABOUT

282 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 474 MILES SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

KIRK IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF KIRK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT KIRK IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A TROPICAL STORM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 999MB.

AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO WARNINGS OF WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, AS KIRK CONTINUES ON THE PATH TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLAND AND THE TRACK OF ITS CENTER AND TROPICAL STORMFORCE WINDS WILL PASS AT A SAFE ENOUGH DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, SPIRAL BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE LIKELY TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A MAXIMUM OF 4 INCHES IN ISOLATED AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER ON TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY; HENCE, SMALL CRAFT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AGAINST HARZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSLEY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK UNTIL IT EXITS THE AREA.

FORECASTER
PATRICE EDWARDS