TROPICAL ADVISORY #5 TS DORIAN

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:30 PM ECT MON, AUG 26, 2019

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS

LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND MARTINIQUE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH,

LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SE OF BARBADOS AND 165 MI…270
KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA… OR ABOUT 410 MILES OR 660 KM SE OF ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS

DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H)
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO PASS
NEAR OR SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH EASTERN
HISPANIOLA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
DORIAN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN REMAINS A
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ON ITS JOURNEY THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RESIDENTS IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, ST. KITTS & NEVIS AND THE REST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE NOT IN THE ALL CLEAR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

 

FORECASTER

CECIL MATTHEW

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